The Reds are in real danger of failing to qualify for next season's Champions League, which would represent a hammer blow to their finances
It's top-four or bust for Liverpool this season, then.
Having played for everything last term, the Reds find themselves scrapping for the bare minimum this time around.
They were out of the title race by October, and by the end of January they had been eliminated from both the Carabao Cup and FA Cup.
Defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League last 16 means there will be no silverware at Anfield, but of even greater concern now will be the fear that Jurgen Klopp's side could miss out on qualification for next season's competition.
That looks a real possibility, with Liverpool currently seven points behind fourth-placed Tottenham – albeit with two games in hand – and facing trips to Manchester City and Chelsea, as well as a home clash with league leaders Arsenal, in their next three matches.
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Klopp has already referred to that run of games as "a defining week", and certainly by April 9 we should know whether Liverpool have any chance at all of taking their place among Europe's elite next season.
if they don't, then there could be dire consequences, on more than one front.
Here, GOAL takes a look at the worrying situation facing Klopp and his team…
GettyImageThe Money
It’s impossible to start anywhere else, really. The Champions League may be the most prestigious competition in club football, but it’s also the most lucrative.
Liverpool earned more than £100 million ($122m) from their run to the final in 2021-22 and pocketed over £34m ($42m) this time around, despite their elimination in the last 16.
Had they made it to the final again, they could have added a further £37.5m ($46m) in prize money alone.
Add in the ‘coefficient payout’, which will earn the Reds close to £30m ($37m) on account of their third-placed ranking on the list, and the broadcast revenue, of which 50 percent is paid to national federations with 50% paid out in proportion to the number of games each club plays in the competition, and the financial incentives are obvious.
“That (a top-four finish) is always our goal at the start of the season,” Reds chief executive Billy Hogan told earlier this year. “Of course, qualifying is important because of the turnover we can make in the Champions League.
“But the way we run the club is to make sure we're as sustainable as possible. You can't automatically count on Champions League qualification.”
Still, Liverpool have been able to count on Champions League football – and Champions League revenue – in each of the last six seasons, and that has played a huge part in the club’s growth, with revenue having reached £594m ($725m) in the latest published accounts.
The club's overall profit, though, was relatively small, standing at just £7.5m ($9.2m) before tax, and while owner John W Henry says he is confident that there will be developments in terms of fresh investment, to lose such a lucrative source of income as Champions League football, even for just one season, would have a big impact.
We have seen the difficulties clubs such as Arsenal and Manchester United have faced after falling off the gravy train, and the fear is that having contested three of the last five finals, Liverpool, too, could find themselves back on the outside looking in, where Europe’s top table is concerned.
AdvertisementGetty ImagesJude Bellingham
Another huge issue, were Liverpool to miss out on the top four, surrounds their No.1 summer transfer target.
Already, there are suggestions the Reds' long-term pursuit of Jude Bellingham could be set to end in disappointment, with The Athletic reporting that Manchester City and Real Madrid have moved ahead in the race to sign the Borussia Dortmund star.
Finances, of course, will play a part in that, particularly with Bellingham valued at more than £110m ($134m), but there is no doubt that being unable to offer Champions League football would do little to enhance the Reds' chances of landing one of the world's best young talents – especially with Europe's elite clubs all seemingly willing and able to give Bellingham what he wants.
Liverpool have certainly not given up hope, but boy would it have boosted their chances had they been firmly established in the top four, instead of facing a late-season struggle to overhaul Spurs and Newcastle.
Getty ImagesThe other transfer targets
And leaving Bellingham aside for a second, what would it mean for Liverpool's wider transfer plans if they were to fall out of the Champions League?
It is clear that they need more than one significant signing this summer, particularly in midfield, where James Milner, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Naby Keita are all out of contract, and where, for one reason or another, doubts persist over the likes of Jordan Henderson, Fabinho, Thiago Alcantara, Curtis Jones, Harvey Elliott and Fabio Carvalho.
Liverpool, it is understood, have a long list of potential targets, but how many of those would be dependent on Champions League qualification? Would Declan Rice, Moises Caicedo, Mason Mount or Nicolo Barella, for example, be prepared to spend a season in the Europa League or Europa Conference League? Would Matheus Nunes or Alexis Mac Allister have offers from Champions League clubs?
The likes of Manchester United have shown that it is possible to attract high-class players without being in the competition – Casemiro is a good example – while even Arsenal, who have not played in the Champions League since 2017, have been able to recruit the likes of Thomas Partey, Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko in recent years. The January spending of Chelsea, who are currently 10th in the Premier League, also lends itself to the idea that Champions League presence is not essential.
Liverpool, though, are run differently to those clubs, and do not have a history of spending big, at least not without recouping significant money through player sales. Looking at the current squad, that does not seem as straightforward as in recent years.
Klopp has already stated that "this summer needs to be a big one" at Anfield, and says that work to identify and recruit new players must be done even if they do not know which European competition, if any, they will be playing in next season.
Understandably, that leaves supporters worried. We know what Liverpool need in the next transfer window, for sure, but what will they get? Right now, nothing is clear.
(C)Getty ImagesThe sales
So, what about selling players, then? Liverpool’s recruitment in recent years, as stated above, has been underpinned by a strong loan policy, where players retain value elsewhere before eventually being sold.
The likes of Neco Williams, Rhian Brewster, Harry Wilson, Marko Grujic, Ryan Kent and Taiwo Awoniyi all earned the Reds good money despite being nowhere near the first team, but how many real assets do they have left?
Nat Phillips, for example, has had no permanent takers in any of the last three windows, and it is unlikely that the likes of Sepp van den Berg, Leighton Clarkson or Tyler Morton – all of whom are out on loan this season – would move the dial in terms of recouping a significant transfer fee.
Players such as Keita and Oxlade-Chamberlain, who may once have commanded decent money, look set to leave for nothing, while many of those who have struggled this season – Fabinho, Joel Matip or Jordan Henderson, for example – would be unlikely to attract big fees. Likewise Thiago Alcantara, another player who is the wrong side of 30.
Who does that leave, then? Back-up goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher, perhaps? Kostas Tsimikas? Is Klopp ready to give up on the likes of Joe Gomez, Fabio Carvalho or Curtis Jones, squad players who would likely attract interest from Premier League clubs, but who would definitely need replacing in the squad, as well as in the home-grown quota?
Could someone like Mohamed Salah even be sacrificed? There have been rumours recently – denied by the Egyptian's agent – that the top scorer could be open to leaving this summer, while there have also been whispers that Diogo Jota might attract interest.
It feels unlikely that Liverpool would sell either player, although Salah in particular would feel a sense of sadness dropping out of the Champions League. The 30-year-old did not, after all, sign a new contract last summer to be competing in the Europa League or Conference League.